LEAP 调查：风险估计不同的专家在 AI 政策上仍存共识

AI 导读

FRI 的 Longitudinal Expert AI Panel（LEAP）汇集了 250 多名专家的预测，包括计算机科学家、产业人士、经济学家、政策专家和 AI 风险专家。调查询问了政策对 AI 风险的影响、专家支持的政策以及他们认为到 2030 年会落地的政策。结果显示，尽管受访者对 AI 风险水平的估计存在分歧，但在政策上大体一致，并认为政府政策能显著降低灾难性 AI 风险。最受支持的政策是建立一个包含美国和中国成员、对前沿模型拥有发布前授权权力的国际机构；部分仅限美国的政策也被预测能降低风险，但效果不如美中双边政策。专家强烈反对联邦优先立法，认为这会增加 AI 风险，而他们认为最能降低风险的政策恰恰是最不可能被实际实施的政策。

正文

In the debates about AI policy, it's often assumed that people with substantially different estimates of AI risk will have different views on which policies make sense.

In fact, this doesn't seem to be the case; FRI found that majorities in every group of forecasters (including AI experts), despite quite different median risk estimates, support:

• an international body, including the US and China, with power to authorise frontier models before release
• a US-only version of the same
• strict liability for frontier developers
• a joint US-China slowdown

https://x.com/Research_FRI/status/2107150179204010267

引用Forecasting Research Institute@Research_FRI

AI experts largely agree about which policies would most reduce catastrophic AI risk. The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) brings together forecasts from a representative group of over 250 experts that policymakers look to when considering the future of AI: computer scientists, industry figures, top economists, policy experts, and AI risk experts. We asked panelists to forecast (1) how a menu of policies would affect AI risk; (2) which policies they each support; and (3) which policies they think will be implemented by 2030. Key findings: • Despite disagreeing on the level of AI risk, respondents broadly agree on policy • Respondents believe government policy can substantially reduce catastrophic AI risk • The most supported policy of those we asked about was the creation of an international body, including the US and China as members, with pre-release authorization power over frontier models • Some US-only policies are forecast to reduce catastrophic AI risk, but not as much as bilateral policies involving the US and China • Experts strongly oppose federal preemption and think it would increase AI risk • The policies experts expect to reduce risk the most are those they think are least likely to actually be implemented 🧵 More, with key insights below:

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