UK NCSC publishes "AI and Cyber Intrusion" assessment report

The UK National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) published the "AI and Cyber Intrusion" assessment, using baseline, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios to project the trajectory of AI-enabled cyber intrusion threats through 2028, emphasizing that the scenarios are possibilities over the medium term rather than predictions. Key judgments of the assessment include: by 2028, state actors such as Russia and China are highly likely to routinely use AI cyber capabilities to pursue geopolitical goals, and the UK faces an increase in the scale and speed of sophisticated cyber attacks; it is almost certain that many systems will remain vulnerable to AI cyber tools capable of identifying and exploiting system weaknesses; attackers are likely to use AI cyber capabilities against known vulnerabilities in legacy technology in critical national infrastructure (CNI), as well as new attack surfaces created by AI tools deployed within CNI; from now to 2028, AI-driven malware is highly likely to be used in ransomware attacks against UK CNI. The report also identifies five key drivers that may affect UK AI cyber threats in 2028.