The Lancet Commission lists 17 catastrophic health threats, with malicious AI use having extinction potential.
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The Lancet Commission on 21st-Century Global Health Threats released a global risk assessment, screening hundreds of risks and listing 17 catastrophic health threats, ranking malicious AI use (including biological weapons) and nuclear conflict as the top among them, stating that both pose a risk of human extinction within the next 75 years, albeit low. The report states that if current trends continue, each of the 17 threats will cause at least 1 billion years of healthy life lost by the end of the century, with malicious AI use estimated to cause 10.4 billion DALYs of health loss by 2100, which can be avoided through targeted actions, with poorer and marginalized populations more affected. The report models disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and a sharp reduction in international health aid could lead to a loss of up to 1.5 billion DALYs before 2100, with nearly 70% concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. The commission consists of 35 members.
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- The Guardian · 人工智能The Lancet assessment: malicious AI use or nuclear war could cause human extinction before 2100
The Lancet Commission on 21st-Century Global Health Threats released a global risk assessment, ranking malicious AI use (including biological weapons) and nuclear conflict as the top of 17 major health threats, stating that both pose a risk of human extinction within the next 75 years. Although the likelihood is low, nuclear conflict could trigger famine by injecting particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight, while AI could be used to create biological weapons. The report models using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and a sharp reduction in international health aid could lead to a loss of up to 1.5 billion DALYs by 2100, with nearly 70% concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Date not givenInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation《柳叶刀》21 世纪全球健康威胁委员会列出 17 项灾难性威胁，AI 恶意使用被列为具灭绝潜力
《柳叶刀》21 世纪全球健康威胁委员会筛查数百项风险后列出 17 项灾难性健康威胁，其中 AI 恶意使用被列为具灭绝潜力的威胁，估计到 2100 年造成 10.4 billion DALYs 健康损失，可通过针对性行动避免。委员会由 35 名委员组成，称 17 项威胁若维持当前趋势，每项到本世纪末都将造成至少 10 亿年健康寿命损失，且贫困与边缘化人群受影响更重。
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