How to safeguard US advanced chips
How to Secure Advanced U.S. Chips
IAPS released a memo recommending that the US government close advanced chip export control gaps in four areas to limit China's frontier AI development. On remote access, researchers estimate that Chinese entities will rent about 1 million H100-equivalent chips in 2026 and reach 2.8 million by the end of 2027; IAPS predicts remote access will become the largest source of compute for Chinese companies developing next-generation leading frontier models, and it can be restricted through the Remote Access Security Act or BIS rules. On smuggling, it estimates a cumulative 1 million chips by the end of 2026 and 1.6 million in 2027, and recommends chip location verification and whistleblower rewards. On H200, the BIS January rule changed exports of NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X to China to case-by-case review, with a cap of 50% of US industry sales (about 890,000 H100 equivalents), but post-export conditions cannot be verified; it recommends advancing the AI OVERWATCH Act and having BIS lower the cap.
The memo classifies export control gaps into four categories: remote access, smuggling, H200 exports, and allied equipment controls, and gives corresponding legislation and actionable steps for BIS for each.