Excerpt from Obsolete: The AI arms race is not inevitable, just profitable

The AI arms race is not a technological necessity but profit-driven—frontier AI companies believe that being first to automate AI R&D can turn a temporary lead into a permanent advantage. Garrison Lovely points out in Chapter 16 of Obsolete that frontier model training relies on a highly concentrated supply chain: ASML monopolizes advanced lithography machines, TSMC manufactures almost all advanced AI chips, and Nvidia designs the chips, so governments only need to restrict a few companies to halt large-scale training. The United States already has legal tools such as export controls, national security powers, and federal contracts, and has used them to restrict exports of advanced AI chips and manufacturing equipment to China, prompting the Netherlands and Japan to follow suit.