AI Goes to War: What Risks Do Middle Powers Face(original, opens in a new tab)
Middle powers are incorporating AI into national defense yet remain structurally dependent on foreign chips, models, and cloud infrastructure, with no recourse when suppliers or their home countries withdraw. In 2022, Ukrainian naval drones ran aground after losing contact when SpaceX did not activate Starlink in the area, and Planet Labs, at the White House's request, indefinitely withheld imagery of Iran and surrounding conflict zones. In March, the U.S. Department of Defense listed Anthropic as a supply chain risk and terminated its contract, with OpenAI stepping in hours later.