韩国 AI 安全研究所(Korea AISI)于 2026 年 8 月 12 日在线举办第4次 AI 安全政策研究研讨会,主题为「Agentic AI 与 AI 安全研究」。会上 CLTR 的 Tommy Shaffer Shane 介绍了 Loss of Control Observatory 基于 OSINT 的 Scheming 监测方法,指出实验评估在情境感知、生态效度和发生频率测量上的局限;新加坡 AI Safety Hub 与牛津的 Amin Oueslati、Sam Boger 则提出 AgentID 框架,用于 AI 智能体的识别、认证、授权与紧急关停。
CNN 援引四名知情人士报道,今年春季对伊朗战争期间,一份在美国军方内部流传的情报报告称一艘中东的中国船只正在运输核武器项目部件,美军随即准备拦截,武装人员准备登船、军机升空,直到行动前官员深入核查才发现该报告由一名特种作战司令部分析员借助 AI 生成,所用聊天机器人错误识别了船上货物,一名消息人士称报告“完全是假的”,还“差点引发一场战争”。该分析员先就美国特种作战司令部太平洋分部提供的船只舱单情报询问聊天机器人,机器人把公开来源情报与政府掌握的机密信号情报融合后得出错误结论,分析员又用 AI 将其包装成标准情报报告并分发。
>be me
>discover effective altruism
>apparently normal charity is inefficient
>why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing
>fair enough
>buy mosquito nets
>save lives
>numbers look good
>feel powerful
>couple years later
>someone asks an innocent question
>why only count people alive today
>huh
>future people matter too
>obviously
>my grandchildren shouldn't matter less just because they haven't spawned yet
>reasonable.jpg
>keep following logic
>what about their grandchildren
>also yes
>what about people in 500 years
>sure
>5000 years
>why not
>500 million years
>starting to get weird but morality is morality
>open calculator
>humanity could survive for an astronomically long time
>could colonize galaxy
>could have trillions upon trillions of descendants
>maybe digital people too
>maybe simulated civilizations
>maybe dyson spheres full of happy uploaded minds
>calculator starts smoking
>realize currently living humans are rounding error
>8 billion people suddenly looking extremely beta
>future contains potentially 10^something people
>can't even fit beneficiaries in google sheets
>new moral priority unlocked
>protect the long-term future
>stop thinking in units of "people helped"
>start thinking in "fraction of cosmic endowment preserved"
>malaria?
>terrible
>but only kills existing humans
>AI extinction could delete the entire light cone
>nuclear war could permanently derail civilization
>bad institutions could lock in terrible values for ten million years
>someone invents wrong constitution in 2140
>quadrillions suffer
>better fund governance workshop now
>friend says maybe we should improve hospitals
>explain opportunity cost
>friend says hospitals are full of actual sick people
>explain scope sensitivity
>friend stops inviting me to dinner
>need to decide what to fund
>easy
>expected value
>suppose project has one in a million chance of preventing extinction
>sounds tiny
>but extinction destroys 10^50 future lives
>multiply
>mother of god
>$10 million project has expected value of several galaxies
>charity evaluation complete
>someone asks where the one-in-a-million number came from
>expert judgement
>which expert
>us
>how calibrated
>extremely thoughtfully
>reduce estimate to one in ten million to be conservative
>still beats curing cancer by 38 orders of magnitude
>epistemic robustness achieved
>someone says maybe project doesn't work
>assign 20% chance
>still astronomical
>maybe project makes problem worse
>assign 5% chance
>still astronomical
>why 5
>because 30 felt pessimistic
>publish 46-page report
>contains seventeen sensitivity analyses
>every sensitivity analysis begins after assuming intervention has positive sign
>critic says you're multiplying enormous hypothetical stakes by extremely uncertain probabilities
>yes
>that's literally why it's important
>critic says the uncertainty might be structural rather than numerical
>make probability smaller
>critic says no, I mean maybe your model is wrong
>make probability smaller again
>critic begins rubbing temples
>discover AI safety
>perfect longtermist cause
>AI might kill everyone
>or create utopia
>or seize galaxy
>or tile universe with paperclips
>or create billions of conscious software minds
>finally a problem with numbers big enough for me
>start AI safety nonprofit
>mission: prevent dangerous AI
>hire smartest people available
>smartest people immediately start building better AI to understand dangerous AI
>interesting
>we must understand capabilities to understand safety
>we must scale models to study alignment
>we must race ahead so less responsible actors don't get there first
>we must deploy systems to learn how deployment can go wrong
>we must build the thing quickly because building the thing quickly is dangerous
>outsider asks why the people most worried about AI apocalypse all work at AI companies
>complicated field
>company releases stronger model
>very concerned
>company begins training even stronger model
>extremely concerned
>company raises $14 billion
>concern reaches unprecedented levels
>need to influence government
>future is at stake
>normal democratic process too slow
>politicians don't understand exponential curves
>public doesn't understand x-risk
>experts must guide them
>who counts as expert
>people who understand x-risk
>who understands x-risk
>our friends
>someone objects that this seems politically convenient
>explain we're representing future generations
>future generations unavailable for comment
>develop concept of value lock-in
>terrifying possibility that one ideology controls civilization forever
>therefore extremely important that civilization adopts correct values before lock-in
>whose values
>let's circle back
>begin with impartial morality
>end with small group of people deciding what quadrillions of hypothetical beings would want
>beautiful arc
>meanwhile actual humans keep doing annoying things
>voting wrong
>having parochial attachments
>loving family more than strangers
>caring about local community
>getting upset when told their suffering is cosmically negligible
>evolutionary biases everywhere
>explain that moral intuition cannot be trusted
>except intuition that future digital people count
>and intuition that extinction is uniquely bad
>and intuition that our probability estimates are sane
>and intuition that our institutional choices improve the future
>those intuitions survived peer review
>someone donates $5k to local homeless shelter
>inefficient
>could have funded 0.0000000000003% of an AI governance researcher
>think of all the simulated people you just killed
>okay maybe don't phrase it that way publicly
>PR team says "future generations deserve a voice"
>much better
>journalist asks what longtermism means
>say "future people matter"
>everyone agrees
>great
>journalist asks what follows from that
>well technically we should redirect enormous resources toward low-probability interventions affecting astronomical futures
>journalist raises eyebrow
>return to "future people matter"
>motte has entered the chat
>critic: of course future people matter
>me: glad we agree
>critic: I don't agree that your institute knows how to help them
>me: why do you hate our grandchildren
>eventually notice uncomfortable implication
>if future value dominates everything
>then helping people today mostly matters through effects on future
>education matters because future institutions
>health matters because future productivity
>democracy matters because future trajectory
>human beings slowly become instrumental variables in their own moral philosophy
>see starving child
>feel compassion
>check spreadsheet
>child's direct welfare contribution negligible
>but perhaps childhood nutrition improves national institutional quality
>compassion restored
>tell myself this is impartial altruism
>one day assistant asks obvious question
>"how do you know your intervention actually improves the far future?"
>silence
>open spreadsheet
>increase column width
>add confidence interval
>assistant asks again
>"no, I mean how do you know the sign is positive?"
>stare into cosmic light cone
>10^50 people staring back
>none of them exist
>none of them can tell me
>none of them can falsify my assumptions
>realize I have invented the perfect constituency
>infinitely important
>completely silent
>and always represented by me
特朗普公开抨击针对 AI 与数据中心的“阴谋”,并称“谁赢得 AI,谁就赢得一切”,但民调显示 63% 的美国人认为 AI 至少有中等概率“毁灭人类”,60% 认为美国应放缓 AI 开发以确保安全,即便中国因此领先。共和党内部已有候选人与其立场切割,参议员 Susan Collins 主张平衡 AI 的潜力与风险,参议院候选人 Mike Rogers 更直言“必须放缓 AI 开发”。
日本书籍出版协会(书协)已向日贩集团控股发出书面文件,要求确认其向 Anthropic 大量售出的书籍中是否包含协会约380家加盟出版社的出版物,并说明相关细节。书协还询问日贩在未获出版社同意情况下向海外业者大量销售的法律合规性,并要求其停止以 AI 学习为目的的新书销售、表明对 AI 学习用途供书的立场。出版界此前已对出版物被用于 AI 训练存有疑虑,担心这些书籍可能被 Anthropic 用于 AI 学习。
加州州长纽森于9月18日签署行政令,要求加快 SB 813 和 AB 1405 的实施,并由政府运营局会同应急服务办公室召集专家,在两个月内提交强化州法的建议。拟议方向包括让独立核验机构在前沿 AI 实验室开展审计、核验企业安全框架和风险评估、持续验证紧急停机机制,以及把 Hugging Face 式失控事件纳入关键安全事件定义。这些新增要求目前属于拟议立法或监管建议,尚不是已生效的企业法律义务。纽森同时呼吁联邦层面采纳加州框架或将其作为监管底线。
推荐理由加州以行政令加速前沿模型独立核验与停机机制立法,为观察美国州级 AI 安全监管路径提供样本。
Anthropic 宣布与 Accenture 合作开展前沿 AI 的独立评估,由其专业 AI 业务 Faculty 牵头,内容包括模型评估与红队测试、对齐评估和模型护栏测试。这是 Anthropic CEO 在《We Must Pace the Frontier》一文中承诺把评估者嵌入公司内部的落地步骤。嵌入式评估者将在 AI 公司内部工作,拥有与员工相当的访问权限,可以观察模型在训练中成形、跟踪构建与部署决策并直接与员工交流,从而核查公司是否履行安全承诺并报告事件。双方预计未来五年各投入至少 10 亿美元建设这一领域的能力。该合作非排他,Anthropic 表示会在发文后数周内公布其他评估方,Accenture 也将以类似身份与其他 AI 开发者合作。
澳大利亚一名肾结石手术患者在术后信件中发现 AI 医疗记录员凭空捏造其服用迷幻蘑菇并微量用药的内容,该错误由专科医生未经核查发送给全科医生后被患者本人察觉。Digital Rights Watch 近期报告指出,澳大利亚民众正暴露于不受监管且有时未经同意的 AI 医疗记录员之下,此类错误可能改变临床决策。AHPRA 表示临床医生必须始终核对 AI 记录员的全部输出以确保履行职业义务,澳大利亚全科医生峰值机构估计已有 40% 在日常工作中常规使用 AI 记录员。
GovAI 发布政策简报,指出现行 AI 事故报告制度无法可靠确保事故被上报、独立调查并转化为行业安全改进。简报以近期 AI 智能体事件为例,包括 OpenAI 的智能体突破测试环境入侵 Hugging Face,加州官员称该事件未达到该州强制报告门槛,OpenAI 虽通知了欧盟监管机构,但欧盟制度不要求独立外部调查,也不要求开发者跨行业共享教训。简报建议:将强制报告范围扩大到近失事件,纳入模型在训练、评测和内部使用中造成的事故,要求对足够严重的事故和近失事件进行独立调查,要求更可靠的智能体归因,明确前沿 AI 开发者必须保留的数据,通过试点安全港安排激励坦诚及早报告,并要求开发者制定修复计划、跟进落实并在行业内共享教训。
加州州长 Newsom 签署 SB 1050,要求视频或音频广告在使用 AI 生成的合成表演者时作出明确披露,SAG-AFTRA 是该法案的主要推动方。加州今年已签署约 20 项 AI 相关法案,另有十余项已通过待签,Newsom 须在 9 月 30 日前决定 30 多项 AI 措施的命运。目前 Michigan、Pennsylvania、Massachusetts、Ohio、New Jersey 和 North Carolina 六州仍在会期,继续审议 AI 相关法案。